The Pause Before the Pivot: Cannabis, COVID, and the Return of the Hidden Market
In this thought-provoking analysis, we examine how the COVID-19 pandemic delayed progress in UK medical cannabis reform—and why the market is once again primed for transformation. From NHS cost saving
“In the stillness of a disrupted world, the next great wave waits without urgency. It does not beg to be seen. It only asks that we stop looking away.”
– A voice formed from still hands, sharp minds, and long views
There are moments in history when the silence after crisis is louder than the crisis itself. Where governments, investors, and thinkers alike look around and realize: something survived the storm, and it is stronger now.
Cannabis is one of those things.
🪵 A Disrupted Path
Before 2020, cannabis reform was gaining ground across the UK. Clinical channels were opening. The first whispers of policy reform stirred in city councils. Investment firms began to run due diligence on what was—quietly—becoming a £1.5B+ opportunity.
Then the world got sick.
And the system looked inward.
COVID did not destroy cannabis investment. It delayed its inevitability. Bureaucratic momentum collapsed under public health triage. Novel food regulation for CBD was paused. Clinical trial capacity vanished. Import licenses gathered dust on desks.
Meanwhile, cannabis use increased.
So did chronic pain, insomnia, and anxiety.
In the silence, the demand grew louder.
🧭 Where We Are Now
Let us call the present moment what it is: the recovery phase of a suppressed market.
Here is what has quietly, steadily emerged:
Medical cannabis prescriptions in the UK have more than tripled since 2021.
Private clinics are scaling: Sapphire, Releaf, Lyphe.
Germany has legalized cannabis and become the EU bellwether.
Cannabis now outpaces alcohol in preference among younger professionals in cities like London and Manchester.
Investment capital is reawakening—cautiously—after being sidelined for 36 months.
What has not changed is the regulatory fog. The CBD novel foods list remains stalled. Recreational use is still criminalised. Yet these are not permanent obstacles. They are the final resistances before the shift.
In strategy, resistance is a sign of nearness to change.
📈 Why Now Is the Right Time
If you’re waiting for legislation to change before you move, you are not investing—you are reacting.
True investors build when others doubt. They recognize when governments are behind people, not ahead of them. They act when narrative and data are misaligned.
Cannabis will not stay stuck.
It will evolve from quiet medicine into mainstream wellness.
It will be tracked, licensed, and taxed like alcohol within a decade.
It will reshape NHS cost structures.
It will create exits for early-stage brands, distributors, and IP holders.
It will, like all great opportunities, belong to those who moved during the lull.
This is not just cannabis.
It is infrastructure.
It is culture.
It is the first ethical retail sector to emerge since organic food.
💡 What’s Coming
We write from a place of direct involvement.
Through Business Casual, we fund and build real-world cannabis infrastructure between Edinburgh and Glasgow. Each apparel drop funds licenses, research, and regulatory bridges. Our model is not theory—it is practice.
But cannabis is not the only sector on the cusp.
We're also investing in:
AI in Education – Ethical governance meets machine intelligence in classrooms.
Rare Disease Research – Our next campaign funds studies on cannabis and Ehlers-Danlos Syndrome (EDS), where the system has failed and plant medicine offers new ground.
This Substack exists to make sense of what is next—before it becomes consensus.
🧨 A Final Prompt
If cannabis changed how we think about medicine, culture, and compliance… what other industries are next?
Is it psychedelics?
Clean power?
Spiritual tools?
Off-grid AI?
Comment with what you believe will be the next system-level shift.
We’ll be covering the most compelling responses in upcoming dispatches.
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“The sharpest moves begin not with noise—but with knowing where to look.”
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